The AI-augmented trading bot that shows its
Mercurio runs one trend-following edge — gated by the market regime, screened by AI, capped by hard risk limits. Every gate, trade, and drawdown is open to inspect. Backtested and paper-traded, not live.
Here's the whole method — gates, trades, drawdowns and all.
One disciplined edge, taken apart gate by gate.
No hundred-strategy black box. Trend-following on 1-hour bars, gated by the market regime, screened by AI, capped by hard risk limits. Every step is laid bare below — then replayed across two years of real history, the -29.3% drawdown included. The +53.1% it returned is the proof, not the pitch.
Four gates between a chart and a trade.
Every signal runs a gauntlet. If any gate says no, Mercurio does nothing - and doing nothing is often the most profitable decision of the day.
Generate the signal
Trend following on 1-hour bars. Triple EMA stacks (12/48, 24/72, 48/144) confirm direction; ADX >= 22 confirms a real trend. No signal, no trade.
Check the regime
Longs only when the S&P 500 has closed above its 50- and 200-day averages for ten straight sessions. Otherwise Mercurio sits in cash.
Filter with intelligence
An AI layer screens sentiment, events, and earnings as a veto. It can only reduce conviction or stand aside, never amplify a trade.
Size, protect, execute
Risk capped at 1.5% per trade. Every entry carries a stop. Daily, weekly, and drawdown circuit breakers halt trading - no exceptions.
Two years, drawn in full.
Mercurio's account equity across the whole two-year backtest — every figure computed straight from the real equity curve, the -29.3% drawdown included.
Account equity, month by month, over the full backtest window.
Account equity from a historical simulation on 102 symbols · $25,000 paper capital · session-gap stop fills, 0.15% per-side slippage. Not live. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The only strategy that survived testing
Diversification was the original plan. We built and backtested every variant - mean reversion, momentum, gap, pairs, crypto - and each one failed to show a durable edge. Only disciplined trend following did. So that is all Mercurio runs.
Trend Following
Average win $229 versus average loss $211 - the edge comes from a positive expectancy, not a high hit rate.
Figures from a 2-year backtest. Paper / simulated. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Risk management is inviolable, not optional.
Position sizing, stop-losses, loss limits, and a drawdown circuit breaker are enforced in code, not suggestions. The engine moves through clearly defined states - and sits in cash whenever the odds are not there.
- Risk per trade
- 1.5%
- Daily loss limit
- 5%
- Weekly loss limit
- 7%
- Drawdown breaker
- 15%
- Max positions
- 15
- All systems live
Full allocation while the S&P uptrend is confirmed.
- Fast-drop guard
Position sizes cut as portfolio drawdown builds.
- Fast-rally
Trailing stops tighten to lock in gains on strong runs.
- Manual pause
Trading halted on command; positions keep their stops.
- Cooldown
Flat for five days after the drawdown breaker trips, then resume.
- Out of regime
Flat in cash whenever the S&P uptrend is not confirmed - no new longs.
Where the +53.1% came from
55.9% win rate, 1.38 profit factor, 381 trades. The exact configuration Mercurio runs today, broken down every way that matters — win rate, returns by period, and the names that carried the book.
- Capital base
- $25,000
- Net P&L
- +$13,278
- ROI
- +53.1%
- Win rate
- 56%
- Trades closed
- 381
- Profit factor
- 1.38
- Expectancy
- +$35
- Commissions
- $0.00
Return by calendar period
2024 and 2026 are partial years within the test window.
Top contributors
Net profit by symbol over the window.
- MU+$2,470
- CRWD+$2,195
- PANW+$1,956
- ASML+$1,737
- ARM+$1,680
These results are a historical simulation of Mercurio's live configuration on 102 symbols with $25,000 of paper capital, session-gap stop fills and 0.15% per-side slippage. They are not live trading results and not a forecast. Over a full five-year cycle that includes a bear market, the same strategy was net negative — shown openly on the backtesting page.
It's not just a backtest. It's trading today.
The same configuration is live right now in a 12-month paper-trading validation — a real Alpaca paper account, no real capital, updated straight from the engine. The backtest is the thesis; this is the proof we're running it for real.
What other trading products bury, we lead with
Mercurio is a research project in a 12-month paper validation — not a get-rich scheme. Trust the method, not the marketing. So here are the four things you deserve to know before anything else.
- It is paper trading. No real capital is at risk. The 12-month validation must finish before any live decision.
- It draws down. Even in the strong 2-year window, equity fell 29.3% from its peak before recovering.
- It is a bull-market strategy. Over a full 5-year cycle with a bear market, the same approach was net negative. We do not pretend otherwise.
- The edge is modest. A realistic expectation is in the low-double-digit percent per year — not the triple-digit fantasies sold elsewhere.
Every decision, written down and inspectable
See the method. Check the proof.
Dig into the engine, the risk model, and the full backtest — including the five-year cycle where this same strategy lost money. Or read the source on GitHub.